Some of what I write and talk about... and present on... one could, conceivably, refer to as 'futurism'. Talking about the use of existing technologies and the probable development of them and integration in the near to medium-term future.
Well I just read an interview with Ray Kurzweil in Saturday's Guardian and realised that 'futurism' has been around for decades.
I'll not repeat the interview here... suffice to say I'll be quoting Kurzweil in my next presentation... in particular his idea (which I had vaguely thought of but he seems to have proven) that the trajectory or development of new technology is exponential.
From this he suggests that if current growth rates continue, we could deliver 100% of our electricity needs by solar power in 20 years' time. Just 20 years!
It certainly encourages me that things might change for the better... and blends nicely with the Gartner Hype Cycle (below) in seeing through the hype to probable growth.
What I may try and do (or find if someone has already done it) is plot usage rates of virtual worlds against the exponential graph to see when they will reach criticial mass... if I do... it'll be here.
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