What will 2040 look like?
There's a lot of discussions about what you can do now, or what is happening soon, but what do YOU believe will be happening in our future in 30 years time?
To which I, late to the conversation, posted the following comment:
Ray Kurzweil says we shall see 10,000 years of innovation in the 21st century compared to the 100 years of the 20th century (that @Michael Hanson's grandmother saw).
My maths isn't good enough to work out what fraction of 10,000 years on an exponential curve corresponds to the year 2040, but I would like to assume that:
- we won't be using the internet, we should be able to transmit telepathically thanks to the bio-chip implant in our heads;
- we won't need to work as all our needs will be taken care of through efficiency, leaving everyone in the world to just concentrate on leisure and pleasure; and
- population growth will have been slowed through efficient birth control and education and the climate change will have slowed to zero, giving the planet a chance to recover.
Of course the reality will probably be:
- we'll be using 7 different types of internet that are incompatible with each other (one based on iPhones, one on Android, one on Simbian, one on RIM etc. etc.);
- we'll be working more hours and doing more in those hours to try and make up for the pensions deficit and the fact that the current double-dip recession will leave us with a decade of very low growth (under 2%) that will leave a legacy of sluggishness for decades to come; and
- the climate will change beyond repair, oscillating between extremes of drought, floods and hurricanes - sweeping increasing misery on the 25 billion people living in the third world and more guilt on the 5 billion living in the first.
It's not so much as 'glass half-empty' as 'can I borrow your glass please?'
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